Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 73216.232485 77381.602288 81551.932955 86037.494646 90722.643784 95468.814862 100637.215873
2025-12-28 66908.527443 73287.433617 79856.586284 87117.917389 94909.984169 103011.045016 112060.633024
2026-01-04 62366.859410 70275.461062 78602.932792 88005.915572 98308.513862 109233.837221 121675.752193
2026-01-11 58698.966302 67741.759773 77442.747897 88592.393460 101020.430306 114414.830776 129908.935049
2026-01-18 55420.460349 65325.343725 76127.307901 88736.240157 103002.138465 118593.553491 136872.325576
2026-01-25 52685.869982 63302.228478 75052.996686 88961.161215 104907.320889 122551.718608 143482.476000
2026-02-01 50121.092154 61303.017227 73851.086444 88894.169124 106352.647617 125889.099763 149313.214458
2026-02-08 48304.873578 60054.378060 73406.021080 89599.634914 108601.165437 130080.672282 156081.976953
2026-02-15 46262.466616 58429.354503 72423.481105 89586.367455 109937.358326 133164.262322 161535.949505
2026-02-22 45101.168294 57785.978509 72536.762822 90810.448669 112683.608432 137863.246876 168868.901164
2026-03-01 43822.123664 56933.458032 72342.755385 91617.771097 114898.586972 141919.325953 175447.815105
2026-03-08 42181.084120 55567.173370 71466.261159 91545.455070 116014.413949 144643.965446 180436.170496
2026-03-15 40781.821496 54461.783420 70878.887996 91807.186864 117532.555295 147868.028290 186068.524662
2026-03-22 40040.352559 54146.378026 71236.148701 93208.878850 120431.533586 152760.550799 193738.658068
2026-03-29 39155.868031 53610.799263 71287.876006 94207.264981 122822.382459 157040.418343 200689.773894
2026-04-05 38156.757893 52888.204614 71070.712044 94840.948324 124743.434520 160742.964606 206950.518607
2026-04-12 36997.066774 51915.587539 70499.915927 94996.132175 126043.805726 163672.308749 212267.121100
2026-04-19 35940.573510 51039.894656 70018.759436 95234.636937 127426.007935 166691.348493 217697.852409
2026-04-26 34805.507597 50022.333084 69320.548491 95163.968065 128393.136625 169181.410135 222472.560923
2026-05-03 34079.481909 49523.218435 69271.311477 95909.840123 130386.412470 172951.038965 228855.992716
2026-05-10 33071.986396 48613.244556 68656.283926 95895.822207 131388.430440 175467.750028 233674.042291
2026-05-17 32648.719275 48479.291228 69049.471481 97189.814666 134072.967057 180116.770845 241202.443303
2026-05-24 32069.630583 48111.869016 69116.623086 98043.148659 136182.827142 184043.603215 247838.904940